Credit Suisse Predicts FIO FY12?

According to the usual sources, CFSB is predicting FIO’s 2012 revenue potential to be as high as $563M — this is far higher than the current consensus estimates of about $400m.  CSFB initiated coverage with an “outperform” rating and $50 target.

Fusion-io Update: THE MOST CRITICAL SLIDE FROM CS PRESO YESTERDAY

 

It’s hard to read but the slide shows that FIO is ahead of 3PAR, DDUP, SFDC, & NTAP at a similar point in their growth.

FIO Financial Roadshows Update: Four Major Conferences in San Francisco

Credit Suisse Solid State Storage Conference
San Francisco, California
Wednesday, February 8, 2012, 2:15 p.m. (PT)
David A. Flynn, CEO, and Dennis P. Wolf, CFO

Barclays Big Data Conference
San Francisco, California
Monday, February 13, 2012, 4:30 p.m. (PT)
David A. Flynn, CEO, and Dennis P. Wolf, CFO

Goldman Sachs Technology & Internet 2012 Conference
San Francisco, California
Tuesday, February 14, 2012, 10:20 a.m. (PT)
David A. Flynn, CEO, and Dennis P. Wolf, CFO

Morgan Stanley 2012 Technology, Media & Telecom Conference
San Francisco, California
Tuesday, February 28, 2012, 4:05 p.m. (PT)
David A. Flynn, CEO, and Dennis P. Wolf, CFO

FIO UPDATE: Recent analysis from Credit Suisse

“Gross margin guidance provides bear fodder…we think it is temporary. Based on the stock’s reaction post close, management’s guidance for a second quarter of ~50% gross margins, attributable to primarily a product transition and secondarily a lower-end mix, stoked fears over competition. Based on our conversations with management, we believe the lower margins are temporary given: (1) as the new product is qualified at server OEMs, higher margin enterprise business will enter the mix; (2) more NAND suppliers are becoming available; and (3) software like IO Turbine is margin accretive.
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Business seeing traction in all facets. Fusion-io’s rapid growth (+13% q/q and +169% y/y) and management’s FY12 guidance increase from 55% growth to 65-70% highlighted significant growth potential as did 3 key points: (1) Strategic accounts: management noted a significant win at Salesforce.com and this could offer not only revenue but also diversification; (2) Core accounts: adoption of IO-Turbine is off to a solid start, with several customers in production. This bodes well for enterprise penetration; and (3) Sales: the company added 50 of the world’s largest resellers, gaining access to 2,500 more sales people. Technology penetration and share. For 2010, Gartner notes that the enterprise PCIe market stood at $596mn and based on addressable market numbers was only 1% penetrated. We conservatively expect penetration to rise to only 4% this year and to 10% by 2014. Based on these Gartner numbers and Fusion-io revenue, the company had approximately 14% share in 2010. Given the company’s momentum, direct sales, solution approach, and technology leadership, market share could double, and this would result in a potential $2bn revenue opportunity in 2014.”

Fusion-io raises IPO range: $16 – $18

Fusion-io, which offers a next generation storage memory platform that boosts data access speeds, raised the proposed price range for its upcoming IPO on Tuesday. The company now plans to price its 12.3 million share IPO between $16 and $18, up 21% from the previous $13-$15 range. Fusion-io, which was founded in 2005 and booked $136 million in sales for the 12 months ended March 31, 2011, plans to list on the NYSE under the symbol FIO. Goldman, Sachs & Co., Credit Suisse, and Morgan Stanley are the lead underwriters on the deal. It is expected to price during the week of June 6.